The ongoing transition from fluorescent to LED lighting technologies amounts to a significant disruption for the lighting industry, potentially changing the methods by which lighting is provided and sold to customers. While conventional lighting systems, including fluorescents, remain the dominant technology today, within the next 10 years LEDs are expected to become the lighting technology of choice, especially for commercial markets. According to a new report from Navigant Research, the installed base of LED luminaires for commercial applications is expected to grow from 187 million in 2014 to nearly 2.8 billion by 2023.

"While LED products are still more expensive than the fluorescent lights they are meant to replace, they are also more efficient and offer a range of additional benefits, such as improved color quality and better dimming," said Jesse Foote, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. "As such, an industry-wide transformation to LED lighting is picking up steam and is expected to accelerate in the coming years."

Because of the longer lifespans of LED lamps, replacement cycles for commercial lighting systems are expected to become much longer. Navigant Research expects overall revenues from lamp sales to decrease in the next 10 years, driving lighting companies to change their focus from that of equipment suppliers to providers of services and advanced lighting controls.